Coming off The Five Star Show’s first birthday, it’s time to start year two off right. Last year’s Super Bowl Gambling Guide got some attention for the website in it’s infancy. I hope this year’s Guide gets some attention, and some money in my pocket. There are numerous excellent breakdowns and previews for this game available on the web. No need for me to do my own breakdown. I will highlight some of the articles I used to help me with my decision.
I usually bet with my gut. My gut reaction is what I will go with 90% of the time. I don’t like to talk myself in to or out of a bet. Go with my first thought is my strategy. Sometimes, my gut says to bet something that is different from the trend. When this occurs, I’ll tend to do some research to figure out why my gut is leading me a certain way. This is one of those times.
The gut said bet the Rams. Before I even looked at any odds. Rams. So I looked at the numbers and odds and found that the Patriots are favored. That basically says my gut is wrong, or I’m about to have a great Super Bowl. Hopefully, the latter is the way Sunday goes. Here’s what my research and past experience told me.
The Rams Should Be Favored via SBNation and I agree. This article states that essentially it’s “The Patriots Effect.” How can you bet against Brady and Belichick? I’ll bet on the better team. And I get points!
I remember what Don Schmidt told me years ago. Don was my manager at my first pizza gig from 2007-2011. He’s the president of the Dan Marino fan club (not really, I think). He always pointed out why Marino is the GOAT. He took every opportunity to point out Tom Brady’s flaws. I brushed off most of Don’s rhetoric but one thing always stuck out to me. GET PRESSURE ON BRADY AND HE CAN’T DO JACK! This has mostly stood the test of time. Add 8 years to Don’s rant and Brady is now 40. This stat proves well for Don’s theory and, more importantly, my bets.
Tom Brady by Pressure Location
2018 Season, Including Playoffs
Edge Pressure: 118.7 passer rating
Interior Pressure: 63.1 passer rating
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 22, 2019
This doesn’t really matter but I thought it was cool. via CBS Sports 53 Things to Know
The Super Bowl per Pro Football Reference.As our John Breech wrote, the Patriots are 9-5 in games refereed by Parry while the Rams are 7-0,
Let’s get to the bets! I’ll be at work for most, if not all, of this game. Hopefully, I can keep up with the #WGG and provide updates on Twitter @5StarShowtime or @TheFiveStarShow.
Last Week Record: 1-1
Last Week Profit/Loss: Lost $99
Year to Date Record: 7-10
Year to Date Profit/Loss: Lost $302
As always, all odds come courtesy of Bovada. All bets are $100 unless otherwise noted. All profits based off the amount bet. All odds as of Wednesday 1/30/19. My picks are in BOLD.
SUPER BOWL 53: GAME LINE
New England Patriots vs LOS ANGELES RAMS +3.0 -120 $83
SUPER BOWL 53: FIRST HALF MONEYLINE
LOS ANGELES RAMS +115 $115
SUPER BOWL 53: MOST VALUABLE PLAYER –$25 BET–
AARON DONALD +1800 $450
Defensive players don’t win MVP. Hence only a $25 bet. I like the risk/reward here though.
SUPER BOWL 53: NATIONAL ANTHEM OVER/UNDER 1:47
UNDER 1:47 +130 $130
Remember: The bet is from opening lyric to closing lyric (Oh to Brave)
Gladys Knight sang The Anthem at roughly 1:33 back in 1991. 28 years later and the Super Bowl might add a few seconds to her time. R&B/Soul singers typically perform the longer version of The Anthem via Covers
But I will still take the UNDER.
SUPER BOWL 53: DISTANCE OF LONGEST PENALTY IN THE GAME OVER/UNDER 15.5 YARDS
OVER 15.5 YARDS +115 $115
Somebody will get called for a long ball DPI.
SUPER BOWL 53: RAMS TOTAL RUSHING YARDS OVER/UNDER 127.5
OVER 127.5 +120 $120
No NFL team runs more out of “11 personnel” — defined as one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers — than the Rams, and the Patriots’ defense has been particularly susceptible to runs out of that grouping this season.
That’s where I’ve put my money. I need the Rams to pull this off or my 2019 will start off in big debt. Follow along on Twitter @5StarShowtime. I’ll try to update as I deliver pizza. Enjoy the game!
Cover logo via Home Depot/Google