photo via www.premiercasinohire.com
Super Bowl 52 is set for Sunday February 4th from Minneapolis, Minnesota. You can watch it on NBC, kickoff set for 5:30 CST. In this edition of the Big Game, the New England Patriots will be taking on the Philadelphia Eagles for the right to become NFL Champion. You know all this already so let’s get to the good stuff! Gambling!!
All odds courtesy of Bovada.lv
NE is a 4.5 point favorite to win the Super Bowl at (-115). This means if you bet $100 on the Pats to win by 5 or more you would win $87 profit. Or if you bet PHI (-105) to win the game or lose by 4 or less, a $100 bet would profit $95.
4.5 is a critical number here. Las Vegas is smart. The total number of points New England has won by in the Belichick/Brady Era are as follows: (via ESPN.com)
Every Patriots win has been a close game. And if Atlanta doesn’t blow 28-3 and Seattle just hands the ball to Marshawn, New England would be on a 4 straight Super Bowl losing skid! Oh how the narrative would change. But that didn’t happen so Brady is GOAT and Belichick is GOD, we get it. Anyways…
The smart bet here would be to take PHI +4.5. This means if you’re a Pats fan your team wins, but only by 4 or less. Or if you’re a Fly Eagles Fly believer, Eagles win the game or lose by less than 4.
The easy money bet for this game would seem to be the first half number. New England is at -3 (+110) for the first half. This means NE is favored to be up by 3 or more points going into halftime, and the money received on a winning bet would actually be more than what you invested in the bet . A $100 bet on the Pats to be leading the game by 3 or more at half would profit you $110.
The reason the Pats are a plus money bet (win more than you bet) in this scenario is because the Patriots are generally a slow starting Super Bowl team. Last year the Patriots were of course trailing 21-3 at the half. And in the Seattle game the score was tied at 14 at halftime. Even in NE last matchup with PHI in 2005’s big game, the game was tied at 7 going into break.
Point here is NE doesn’t usually lead at halftime of the Super Bowl. if you believe this trend will continue, take PHI +3 (-130) for the first half. This means PHI is losing by less than 3 or leading the game at half. A $100 bet would profit $77.
The over/under for the total game is set at 48.5 points. You as the bettor decides whether the total score of the game will be over or under 48.5 points. A winning over bet of $100 would profit $95. A winning under bet would profit $87 on the same $100 bet.
Here are New England’s Super Bowl total scores in the B/B era: (via ESPN.com)
2017 34-28 win in OT (62 points)
2015 28-24 win (52)
2012 21-17 loss (38)
2008 17-14 loss (31)
2005 24-21 win vs PHI (45)
2004 32-29 win (61)
2002 20-17 win (37)
New England’s total points have only gone over this year’s total of 48.5 3 out of 7 previous Super Bowl appearances.
PHI defense is ranked 4th in total points allowed per game only giving up 18.4 on average. Right behind the Eagles ranked 5th are the New England Patriots at 18.5 ppg. If the regular season averages hold, plus the trends of previous New England Super Bowl scores stay on course, the smart bet here is to take the UNDER.
Here are some other prop bets I like. These will not have as much explanation or education. My bet is in BOLD.
The largest points lead of the game by either team will be…
Over 13 points (-130) Under 13 points (EVEN)
Team to score first in the game…
Eagles (+110) Patriots (-140)
Will the team that scores first win the game?…
Yes (-165) No (+135) now you know my pick if you’ve been paying attention
The first score of the game – exact outcome
PHI FG (+350) PHI TD (+230) NE FG (+325) NE TD (+160) EITHER TEAM SAFETY (+3300)
Will the Patriots successfully convert a 4th down in the game?…
YES (-130) No (EVEN)
As always do whatever you want with this advice. And if you disagree or if I cost you your house feel free to contact me in the following ways:
Twitter @5starshowtime or @thefivestarshow
Phone 61… yea right haha
Wesley Mize aka 5 Star Showtime
Editor in Chief thefivestarshow.com